The United States has elected Joe Biden to be its next President. Despite there being a last-ditch effort by President Trump to muddy the waters with claims of massive voter fraud, the country is beginning to move ahead. The S&P 500 has rallied 6.04% as of the morning of this writing (November 18th) from the day after Election Day (November 4th) and is pricing in a smooth transition of power. This transition of power is what separates the United States of America from other countries in the world and is the backbone of what makes our country so strong. President Trump has displayed that he has no intentions to concede, and will fight the results of the election until he has extinguished every option. This uncertainty may provide some market volatility in the short term, but I expect that volatility to be short-lived.

COVID-19 and the call to flatten the curve has wreaked absolute havoc on the United States economy. GDP shrank -4.8% in the 1st Quarter of 2020 and the 2nd Quarter is looking to have a large contraction with an even larger recovery in the 3rd Quarter. Total first-time unemployment claims since mid-March have grown to 36.5 million, which represents a 22.4% unemployment rate. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 3,386.15 on February 19th and closed at a low of 2,237.40 nearly a month later on March 23rd. That means the S&P 500 fell by -33.92%. Since the end of WW2, over the past 75 years, there have only been four instances where the S&P 500 fell greater – assuming the worst is now over. This was, by all means, an epic drawdown in the market. However, had we not social distanced the economic repercussions would have been even worse.

That is the bad news.

The longest bull market in US history that began in March 2009 is over.

Bull markets end when a bear market sets in, which is a 20% decline from an all-time high. The all-time high was set on February 19th, 2020 when the S&P 500 hit 3,393 and ended on March 12th, 2020 when the S&P 500 crossed 2,714. At the time of this writing, the market is down 27% from its all-time high.

It isn’t even 2020 yet, and it seems like we are already in full swing for election season. On both sides of the aisle, there are doom and gloom proclamations if the other party wins the Presidential election. Republicans say the stock market will go into a downward spiral if someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders were to win the election. Democrats say the stock market is already on the brink and will tank if Donald Trump is re-elected. And the media, especially the financial media, LOVES this. The financial media plays into these fears because they know investor uncertainty drives people to view their programs – which only act as fuel for the fire and are far from being a calming source. But as disruptive as elections seem to be, do they have an impact on the stock market?